Productivity decline in fertility support systems: deterioration in the structural conditions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA)

This study examines changes in the productivity of local fertility support systems (FSSs) in the Seoul Metropolitan Area of South Korea from 2010 to 2020. The FSS is conceptualized as a local policy system through which policy instruments, such as financial support and childcare services, are translated into fertility-related outcomes under broader socio-economic and institutional conditions. Moving beyond conventional approaches that focus on the causal effects of individual policies, this study adopts a system-level input–output framework and applies the Meta-Malmquist Productivity Index (MMPI) to analyze changes in productivity over time. The results show that, despite modest improvements in technical efficiency in some regions, overall productivity declined across most municipalities. This decline was primarily driven by a contraction of the production frontier, which is consistent with a deterioration in the observed relationship between policy inputs and fertility-related outcomes under broader structural constraints. From a political economy perspective, the findings highlight the distinction between improving the efficiency of existing policy resources and addressing broader structural conditions, and underscore the importance of coordinated, cross-level policy responses in areas such as housing, labour markets, and socio-cultural conditions.