Observed and Projected Trends of Climate Extremes in Gojjam and South Gonder Agroecological Zones, in North Western Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Ethiopia's economy, which depends heavily on agriculture, has been adversely affected by an increase in climate extreme events. Localized studies of climate extreme events of specific agroecological zones provides valuable insights to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The study focuses on analysis of rainfall and temperature extremes for the observed (1984–2014), midcentury (2030–2060) and end century (2070–2100) under SSP2‐4.5 & SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. Trend analysis was done using R statistical software Mann–Kendall package. Observed rainfall extremes, SDII, PRCPTOT, R10mm, R20mm and Rx1‐day rainfall showed significant increases at α < 0.05 to α < 0.01 in Wet Dega AEZs. PRCPTOT and R10mm increased significantly at α < 0.1 and α < 0.05, respectively, in Moist Kolla AEZs. R20mm and SDII showed significant trends at α < 0.05 and α < 0.01, respectively, in Moist Dega and Wet Weyna Dega AEZs. Rainfall extremes at the midcentury under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 showed Rx10mm, Rx20mm, CWD and PRCPTOT) exhibited insignificant trends across AEZs. At the end century under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, PRCPTOT and RX10mm had significant increases ( α < 0.1) in some AEZs. The observed temperature extremes, TX10p and TN10p were significantly decreasing in Wet Dega AEZs at α < 0.1 and α < 0.001, respectively. TXx and TNn showed significant trends ( α < 0.05) in Moist Kolla AEZs. The projected temperature extremes at the midcentury under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 showed that, TX10p, TX90p, TN10p, TN90p, SU, and TXx showed significant increases in most AEZs at α < 0.01 and α < 0.001, while, at the end century, TXn, TNx, TX90p, TN90p, SU and DTR exhibited insignificant increasing and significant increasing trends under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively, across most AEZs. Thus, the findings highlight distinct vulnerability pathways among agroecological zones, offering critical insights for localized climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in Ethiopia.