Drought in the cloud: recognizing, framing, and contesting drought as a climate risk in Dutch social media discussions

Abstract Public debate plays an important role in shaping responses to climate-related hazards such as drought. While considerable attention has been given to the physical dimensions of drought, less is known about how public debate shapes societal understanding of drought. This study examines how drought became socially recognized, framed and contested on social media in the Netherlands, a country traditionally more familiar with flood than drought management. Using a combination of social network analysis and AI-assisted classification of Dutch tweets posted between 2015 and 2022, we tracked the evolution of drought-related online communities and how they discuss and frame drought. The results show a shift from discussions of drought as a distant international issue towards a national challenge following the severe Dutch drought of 2018. As drought impacts became increasingly visible, discussions expanded beyond reporting impacts to include debates on climate change, agriculture, nature conservation and water governance. Competing frames emerged around responsibility for drought impacts and competing water demands between nature and agriculture. Some communities emphasized the role of historical land and water management practices in exacerbating drought vulnerability, while several climate-sceptical communities questioned the attribution of drought to climate change. In parts of the discussion, farmers were also portrayed primarily as victims rather than contributors to the problem. Nature-related impacts consistently received attention throughout the study period, both with nature being portrayed as a victim of drought and as part of the solution to climate change. Meanwhile, the tone of the drought debate became increasingly sarcastic and less neutral over time. Our findings demonstrate how an emerging climate risk can evolve from a distant issue to a socially contested topic, involving competing interests, responsibilities and interpretations. Understanding these dynamics can help in making policymakers aware of public concerns, and potential support for drought adaptation strategies.