Simulation-based implementation of the developed system dynamics model for sustainable urban water supply systems

Abstract Water is an indispensable resource, underpinning not only domestic livelihoods, but also the social and economic fabric of nations. Climate change serves among the most formidable threats to the world’s freshwater reserves. Naturally, potable water serves as a finite and precious commodity, merely, 3% is fresh, 2% locked within glaciers and polar ice caps, leaving only 1% accessible for human use. As global water consumption increases at an average rate of 1% annually. Projections alarms need of adopting robust and advanced water management policies, as only 60% of the world’s required water supply will be available by 2030. This crisis is most acutely felt, in developing nations with rapid population growth and pervasive poverty compounds water scarcity. In Pakistan, groundwater serves as the cornerstone of the national domestic water supply infrastructure approximately, meeting 70% of drinking water demands nationwide. Moreover, the widening chasm between water demands and supply urgently required, innovative water management strategies. At present, in Pakistan, urban water supply planning, development, and maintenance remain heavily anchored in conventional engineering and demand-driven frameworks. This study develops the first tailored System Dynamics decision-support model for Peshawar’s urban water system, introducing a novel coupling of an age-band leakage formulation with proactive pipe replacement policies tailored for intermittent, groundwater-dependent utilities. At its foundation, lies meticulously on a constructed Causal Loop Diagram, serving as a comprehensive visual map. To capture, the intricate interdependencies in social, financial, and physical/technical sectors of urban water supply systems. The framework was operationalized and demonstrated on Tehsil Peshawar over a 50-year simulation horizon. Currently, the public water supply system in Peshawar, comprising of tube wells collectively discharging approximately 2 million gallons per hour. However, at baseline static conditions, the total water demand is 6.01 MGH with an estimated leakage rate of 1.703 MGH (28.3%). Crucially, comparing these requirements against the actual municipal abstraction capability of 2 million GPH reveals a 3-fold supply deficit. This structural gap highlights the disparity between standard design benchmarks (250 LPCD) and real-world supply capacities, demonstrating how operational intermittent supply acts as a forced rationing mechanism under current system constraints. Critically, energy costs constitute nearly 80% of total tube well operating expenses, positioning energy optimization as a linchpin of financial sustainability. The study advocates for solar-based energy alternatives, demand management interventions and proactive groundwater replenishment strategies as transformative interventions. This paper makes a compelling case of holistic and systems-thinking approaches, embracing full complexity of sustainable water governance, offering a replicable and scalable model for developing nations confronting analogous of water security challenges.