The Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Runoff Volume for Hydropower

ABSTRACT This research investigates the complex relationship between land use and land cover (LULC) changes and runoff for hydropower. Remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) approach were employed to conduct the analysis on LULC changes over the period of 21 years. In conjunction, the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method was employed to estimate runoff volumes based on the LULC changes. The findings reveal a significant change in the LULC type where forested area experienced major loss, primarily due to the urban and agricultural expansion. This has resulted in the increase of CN value, which relates the LULC changes with runoff. The findings demonstrate that LULC changes associated with increased runoff potential, as reflected by higher curve (CN) values, while rainfall variability also influences the estimated runoff volumes. Forest cover declined from 74.10% in 2001 to 68.85% in 2022, while urban area increased from 7.92% to 11.11%. Hydropower generation is estimated using the empirical Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS‐CN) hydrological model to compute total runoff, while the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) is used to determine the flow available for hydropower generation. The research is important for land use management practices and provides valuable information for hydropower operators to create a sustainable hydropower operation.