Seven Minutes and the Death of the Dinosaurs

This essay examines how a very small change in the orbital motion of the Chicxulub impactor might have prevented the collision associated with the extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs approximately 66 million years ago. Using a hypothetical inclined asteroid orbit, it considers a small collision occurring one million years before the impact. A velocity change of only 100 nanometers per second could, in a simplified Keplerian model, accumulate into a sufficient change in arrival time to turn an Earth impact into a near miss. The essay combines an accessible discussion of orbital sensitivity and its possible implications for evolutionary history with an Appendix presenting the supporting calculations, assumptions, and limitations.