TARGETING OF SOCIAL SUPPORT FOR FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN FROM 2027: SOCIO-ECONOMIC RISKS AND POLICY IMPROVEMENT OPTIONS

This article examines the changes in the social protection system of the Republic of Kazakhstan entering into force from 1 January 2027, with particular attention to the strengthening of targeted social assistance and the digital assessment of household well-being. The study focuses on the distinction between aggregate household income and the actual economic resources available to women who provide direct childcare. A formally high household income does not necessarily imply that a mother who is temporarily outside the labour market has an independent financial resource or equal access to the income earned by her spouse. The analysis demonstrates that the current legislation does not provide for the automatic abolition of the state childcare allowance for children under 1.5 years of age solely because of a high household income. However, the broader development of targeted social protection requires an assessment of the potential consequences of extending income-based eligibility criteria to universal family benefits in the future. The article identifies several potential risks, including reduced economic autonomy of mothers, earlier return to paid employment, increased demand for childcare services for children under three, and additional pressure on preschool infrastructure. The study argues for a combined policy model consisting of a universal basic child benefit, targeted supplements for economically vulnerable families, a gradual reduction of benefits as household income increases, individual assessment of socio-economic circumstances, and the expansion of affordable childcare services.