A Vote That Did Not Exist: Favelas, Violence, and Change between Rounds in Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Election

This article examines the spatial distribution of Lula’s vote gains between the two rounds of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. Using electoral-section results and data from the 2022 Census, we estimate the composition of the electorate at 3,478 polling places in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. In both cities, Lula made greater gains at polling places with a higher estimated share of favela residents, even after controlling for income, violence, and first-round results. The difference associated with moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of this share was approximately one percentage point of the registered electorate. In São Paulo, proximity to favelas was also positively associated with Lula’s gains, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s gains were smaller in areas with higher levels of violence in both cities. The comparison with 2022 shows that the association between electorate composition and Lula’s gains intensified in both metropolitan centers. Extending the analysis to 23 large cities shows a smaller intensification on average, distinguishable from zero in only five of them. In 2026, the differential was larger in cities whose state governments elected in 2022 were allied with Bolsonaro. This pattern is consistent with a reaction to security policies, although the aggregate data cannot identify this mechanism or reconstruct individual vote transfers.