Spatially Explicit Assessment of Climate Gentrification in Miami-Dade County: Elevation, Sea Level Rise, and Demographic Displacement

This study examines the spatial dynamics of climate-driven gentrification across 646 census tracts in Miami-Dade County, Florida, from 2010 to 2023, testing whether sea level rise exposure and elevation are associated with income growth, home value appreciation, and Black non-Hispanic demographic displacement, using American Community Survey data and NOAA 2.1 m inundation. County-wide Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models indicate that elevation is not associated with income change, while elevation is significantly associated with Black non-Hispanic population decline in historically Black tracts (6.6 percentage points per meter where the 2010 share was at least 30%). Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) indicates that this elevation–displacement relationship is spatially heterogeneous, concentrated in northern Miami-Dade and improves on OLS (mean local R2=0.57 vs. 0.35). Among high-elevation tracts (mean elevation > 2.1 m), GWR (R2=0.49 vs. 0.33) shows that baseline socioeconomic vulnerability is associated with gentrification intensity, while elevation retains a positive association. These findings extend climate gentrification theory, which centers on property value appreciation, by suggesting that demographic displacement was a more sensitive indicator than income or home value change in Miami-Dade. Nesting global county-wide and focused analyses suggests that climate gentrification may not be detectable at a single analytical scale, and income-based metrics may underestimate the phenomenon.