Correlated Demand Shocks and Asset Pricing

Abstract I propose a mechanism through which institutional investors’ correlated demand shocks provide a source of market risk in asset pricing. Institutional investors have mandates to beat a similar market index. During periods of strong stock market performance, their incentive to outperform intensifies as more of them fall short of the market index. This incentive induces procyclical risk-taking behavior, generating correlated demand that elevates the market betas and risk premia of exposed stocks. Quasi-experiments using exogenous changes in index membership support a causal interpretation of the mechanism. Elevated betas are associated with a higher perceived cost of capital and reduced firm investment. (JEL G1, G2)