Supply chain resilience in the era of geopolitical disruptions: a capability-based co-evolutionary framework for supply chain resilience

Purpose This study aims to systematically synthesize the literature at the intersection of geopolitical risk (GPR) and supply chain resilience (SCR) to investigate how modern theoretical models and advanced predictive tools are utilized to integrate GPR into SCR frameworks, ultimately proposing a capability-based framework for building resilient supply networks. Design/methodology/approach We used a multi-stage methodological framework anchored in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 guidelines. Following a systematic search and screening process that yielded a final corpus of 75 high-impact academic articles, we conducted bibliometric analysis via RStudio (Biblioshiny), followed by structural topic modeling (STM) using R, and finally a NotebookLM-assisted qualitative synthesis, with all outputs manually cross-checked against the original articles. Findings The theoretical foundation of SCR has evolved through three distinct themes: SCR models and frameworks; geographic, operational and strategic reconfiguration; and artificial intelligence, predictive analytics and digital integration. The study proposes a novel capability-based co-evolutionary framework, encompassing proactive anticipation and semantic risk sensing, agile response and shock absorption, collaborative recovery and stabilization, and strategic value chain restructuring to integrate GPRs into SCR. Practical implications A capability-based co-evolutionary framework was proposed from the literature synthesis that enables SCR across the pre- and post-disruption phases of geopolitical events. This provides managers with an actionable, iterative roadmap to transition from reactive risk mitigation to proactive, AI-driven resilience in a fragmented global economy. Originality/value This paper addresses a critical gap by providing a unified synthesis of fragmented GPR and SCR research. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is among the first to comprehensively map how macro-level geopolitical indices, advanced AI-driven predictive analytics and structural network adaptations interact to safeguard long-term supply chain viability.