Prospective Approaches to Forecasting the Health and Social Consequences of the Burden of Chronic Non- Communicable Diseases under Conditions of a Prolonged Wartime Emergency

Purpose is to provide a scientific rationale for, and develop innovative approaches to, preventing the development and spread of chronic non-communicable diseases under a wartime emergency. Materials and methods. The informational and empirical basis of the study comprised Ukrainian legislation and regulatory instruments; national and international scientific publications from 2015 to 2024, regarding the effects of martial law since 2022; official materials from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, and the Public Health Centre of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine; analytical data from healthcare institutions in Odesa Region. Results. Standardised indicators show that the region bears a high burden of non-communicable diseases. Following to the Global Burden of Disease methodology, it was established that cardiovascular disease accounts for more than 62% of the health and social burden, with a trend towards onset at younger ages. Conclusions. The most effective means of assessing regional disparities in NCDs arising from environmental, socioeconomic, demographic, behavioural, and wartime determinants is a combined methodological approach incorporating statistical methods (standardised rates and health indices), epidemiological tools (the WHO STEPS instrument), geospatial methods (GIS analysis), and composite measures of disease burden (DALYs). Prospects for further research should include a comprehensive regional STEPS 2027 study and a more detailed investigation of the cumulative effects of environmental and wartime factors on different age and social groups within territorial communities.