The Impact of Inflation, Investment, Expenditures, and Development Aid on Women’s Employment in Türkiye: A QARDL Application

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of inflation, public expenditures, household consumption expenditures, development aid, and investments on female employment in Türkiye between 1988 and 2023 using the quantile ARDL method. Additionally, the study aims to test the validity of the Phillips (1958) and Abrams (1999) Curves in the female labor market in Türkiye during this period. The analysis revealed a cointegration relationship among the variables. According to the short- and long-run coefficient estimates, a negative relationship was observed between inflation and female employment in the lower quantiles, while a positive relationship was found in the higher quantiles. These results indicate that the Phillips curve is valid in the female labor market in Türkiye for high quantiles in both the short and long terms. A negative relationship was observed between public expenditures and female employment in the .05-.40 quantile range, while a positive relationship was found in the .50-.95 quantile range. According to these results, the Abrams Curve holds for the female labor market in Türkiye in both the short and long term for quantiles between .05 and .40, whereas it does not hold for quantiles between .50 and .95. When examining the long- and short-term coefficients of other variables, household consumption expenditures negatively affect female employment for all quantiles except one. While development aid has a positive impact on female employment across all quantiles, investment has a positive impact on female employment in all quantiles except the two lowest.