Industrial and Service Productivity Spillovers to Agricultural CO₂ Emissions in Türkiye and Uzbekistan, 2002–2024: Ecological Insights from an Exploratory Time-Series Analysis

This exploratory study asks whether productivity growth in industry and services is associated with subsequent changes in agricultural CO₂ emissions in Türkiye and Uzbekistan, and whether emissions in turn feed back into sectoral productivity. We use annual World Development Indicators (WDI) for 2002–2024 (23 observations per country): agricultural CO₂ emissions, CO₂ emissions per capita, agricultural value added and employment, and value added per worker in industry and services. After augmented Dickey–Fuller tests, the relationships were examined with Johansen trace tests and country-specific bivariate vector autoregressions with two lags. The Johansen tests select full rank in both countries, which points to stationarity in levels rather than to a cointegrating relationship; given the known small-sample bias of the trace test, we do not read it as evidence of a long-run equilibrium. None of the lagged productivity terms in the agricultural emission equations is significant (p = 0.162–0.804). In the reverse direction, a rise in agricultural emissions is followed by higher service productivity in both countries, by higher industrial productivity in Türkiye and by lower industrial productivity in Uzbekistan (first-lag p ≤ 0.028). In these two transition economies, productivity gains outside agriculture do not translate automatically into lower agricultural emissions. With so short a sample, the results are best read as hypotheses for further testing rather than as estimates of causal spillovers.