Beyond Rainfall: A Conceptual Framework for Multi-Hazard Weather-Based Insurance Adoption Among Small-Scale Tobacco Farmers in Zimbabwe

Smallholder tobacco farmers in Mashonaland West Province, Zimbabwe, face increasing exposure to multihazard climate catastrophes, including drought, excessive rainfall, hail, and windstorms. Although weather-based crop insurance is promoted as a climate risk-financing tool, most products rely on single rainfall indices that poorly capture localized perils, creating basis risk and low renewal rates. This conceptual paper develops an integrated adoption framework that moves beyond rainfall. Combining Protection Motivation Theory [PMT] and Diffusion of Innovations Theory [DOI], the paper explains adoption intention as a function of threat appraisal, coping appraisal, innovation attributes, affordability, and institutional trust. To bridge the gap between adoption and actual resilience, the paper proposes the original Climate Catastrophe Agricultural Insurance and Resilience [CCAIR] Model with six pillars: Catastrophe intelligence, Contract matching, Affordable financing, Information integrity, Rapid recovery, and Resilience learning. The model specifies hazardspecific product design, inclusive premium financing, and measurable post-event recovery outcomes. A sequential mixedmethods validation protocol is outlined for Mashonaland West, comprising documentary review, farmer surveys, key informant interviews, and historical index-loss back-testing. The paper does not report primary data; all relationships are propositional and await empirical testing.