CASEL: Consequence-Aware Selective Execution for Reliable Long-Horizon Tool-Using Agents

Tool-using language agents increasingly modify external systems, yet most runtime safeguards allocate scrutiny by generic uncertainty scores or coarse mutation heuristics. We introduce CASEL (Consequence-Aware Selective Execution Layer), a model-agnostic runtime allocation policy that combines calibrated failure probability, state-dependent consequence, reversibility, ambiguity, and evidence freshness to choose, for each proposed tool call, among direct execution, verification, sandboxing, clarification, approval, and abstention by minimizing a per-mode cost. We formalize direct execution as selective prediction and state and test the validity conditions of a finite-sample threshold and a trajectory risk ledger. In a controlled simulation over 20 seeds with 120,000 test actions each, in which every method has the same intervention menu and the same compute cost, CASEL reduces harmful-side-effect trajectories from 14.75 percent for an uncertainty-ranked gate to 7.02 percent and mean normalized harm from 0.184 to 0.123. A gate ranked by the product of failure probability and consequence reaches similar harm (5.82 percent, 0.120) but sends 45 percent more actions to human approval, and removing reversibility-aware routing raises the rate to 15.53 percent. A trajectory-level risk budget, in contrast, increases harm at equal cost (11.82 percent). Intervention effectiveness is assumed, not measured: the results rank allocation rules under the simulator's assumptions and do not establish deployment effectiveness.