Climatic extremes and their social implications in 17th century Transylvania: An historical climate reconstruction

The 17 th century was a period of significant climatic and social challenges in Europe, marked by the transition to the Maunder Minimum, as part of the Little Ice Age; marked by low solar activity, many negative thermal anomalies, long and harsh winters, rainy years, numerous extreme weather phenomena, famines, epidemics, etc. Taking these aspects into account, the present study aims to reconstruct, based on written historical sources, the climatic variability in the Principality of Transylvania during the 17 th century. The emphasis is placed on reconstructing anomalies in temperature and precipitation regimes, as well as on analysing climate-related calamities and their impacts on society. The analysis identified a high prevalence of events associated with abnormally cold weather, with 55 winters mentioned as particularly harsh in this century; 36 of these occurred during the Maunder Minimum (between 1645 and 1700, which falls within our study period). This interval was also characterised by numerous episodes of excessive precipitation, especially during winter, and a clear imbalance between events associated with excessive humidity and those associated with drought. Variable climatic conditions caused poor harvests, famine, high prices and favoured the emergence of severe epidemics (especially plague) and social crises. The correlation of historical sources with other proxy data from natural archives confirms the exceptional character of this century and validates the reconstruction based on historical sources. They also indicate that natural factors, such as solar activity and general atmospheric circulation, could have generated the colder and wetter climatic conditions in 17 th century Transylvania, particularly during the winters of the Maunder Minimum.