Forecast Ledger 2 — Western Australia metal discoveries (1 km and 15 more commodities)

A sealed, time-stamped forecast of where new mineral resource estimates will appear in Western Australia between 1 November 2026 and 31 October 2028. It extends Forecast Ledger 1 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23645132), which stays unchanged. Claim A (main): at 1 km resolution, over the 1.02 million km² covered by the GSWA 1:100 000 interpreted bedrock geology, at least 45% of new projects receiving a first resource estimate for one of 13 metals (lithium, gold, nickel, copper, cobalt, rare earths, zinc, lead, manganese, vanadium, PGE, silver, iron ore) will fall inside the best 1% of the area (about 10,000 km²) for that metal, and the forecast will capture more of them than the simple rule "look nearest to existing deposits and mines". Claim B: at 5 km resolution, at least 70% of new projects for ten further commodities will fall inside the top 10% of Western Australian land, at least matching the simple rule. Report only: scandium, gallium, niobium, tungsten and antimony. Scorecards every 3 months from January 2027, a fuller interim report on 30 April 2027 (no pass or fail), and the final verdict on 31 October 2028. Every result, good or bad, will be published. The forecast maps and scoring scripts are sealed. The PDF prints the SHA-256 fingerprint of a file list (SHA256SUMS.txt) that fingerprints all 52 sealed files. The files and the list will be released at scoring so anyone can confirm they were not changed. The method is private; only the claims, scoring rules, hashes and results are public. Built only from open government data: WA MINEDEX (extract of 14 October 2026), GSWA 1:100 000 and 1:500 000 geology, DMIRS tenements and drillholes (all CC BY 4.0).