Methodology of forecasting the development of socio-economic systems of the Arctic multiethnic regions

Subject. Forecasting regional growth to ensure balanced sustainable development of the multiethnic regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Objectives. Substantiation of the predictive potential of the ARIMA model in relation to the quantitative assessment and short–term forecasting of key indicators of the regional development of the ethnographic and economic systems of the Arctic polyethnic regions using the example of forecasting one of the indicators of traditional economic activity of indigenous peoples – the dynamics of reindeer herding in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Methods. The initial processing and structural analysis of the time series were performed using the ARIMA method. Almon's method of distributed lags was used for short-term forecasting. Results. The analysis of the dynamics of the reindeer population in 1936–2025 was carried out and a forecast for 2026–2029 was made based on the application of the ARIMA method. Conclusions. The choice of autoregression models – integrated moving average – is determined by their ability to work with time series that demonstrate instability and seasonal fluctuations, which is especially important for Arctic socio-ecological systems with their pronounced cyclical nature and economic processes. The use of forecasting tools in the practice of territorial planning forms the institutional basis for achieving balanced sustainable development of the region, in which economic dynamics, the social well-being of indigenous peoples and the sustainability of Arctic ecosystems create a synergistic effect.