Developing and Applying an Integrated Framework for Assessing Urban Low-Carbon Development: A Case Study of Wuhan (2014–2023)

Urban low-carbon development involves multiple socioeconomic and ecological dimensions that may not improve synchronously. This study evaluates the multidimensional low-carbon development of Wuhan, China, from 2014 to 2023 by integrating ecosystem carbon storage with carbon, economic, transportation, living, and environmental indicators. Entropy weight-TOPSIS, InVEST, coupling coordination, obstacle degree, and spatial autocorrelation analyses were combined to assess temporal performance, subsystem coordination and relative constraints, and the spatial distribution of carbon storage. Within the study-period evaluation framework, the comprehensive low-carbon development index increased from 0.398 to 0.598, while ecosystem carbon storage decreased by approximately 0.74 million t C, indicating divergent trajectories between aggregate performance and ecological carbon stocks. The coupling coordination degree increased from 0.544 to 0.782, corresponding to a shift from reluctant to intermediate coordination. The dominant relative constraint shifted from Living during 2014–2018 to Transportation during 2019–2023, with civilian vehicle ownership becoming the largest transportation-related shortfall by 2023. Carbon storage exhibited strong positive spatial autocorrelation and a broadly stable clustering pattern, characterized by peripheral high–high and central low–low clusters. These findings demonstrate the value of jointly considering overall performance, subsystem constraints, and spatial ecological conditions when evaluating urban low-carbon development.