Tourism Development in Maharashtra: A Statistical Analysis of Tourist Flows, Market Share and Post-Pandemic Recovery, 2018–2024

Abstract Purpose: This paper examines the growth, relative position and post-pandemic recovery of tourism in Maharashtra, the state that received the largest number of foreign tourist visits in India in 2024. It also asks how far official state-level tourism statistics can support comparative performance claims. Design/methodology/approach: A longitudinal, descriptive–analytical design uses secondary data from the Ministry of Tourism, Government of India (India Tourism Statistics, India Tourism Data Compendium and Parliament replies) for 2018–2024. Six indicators are computed: annual growth rate, compound annual growth rate (CAGR), market share, a Recovery Index (2018 = 100), a Tourism Specialisation Index and a Foreign Tourist Intensity ratio. These are complemented by a classical shift-share decomposition of change in visits. Findings: Domestic tourist visits (DTVs) to Maharashtra rose from 111.30 million in 2022 to 189.37 million in 2024 (CAGR 30.44%), which is 58.9% above the 2018 benchmark. Foreign tourist visits (FTVs) more than doubled, from 1.51 million to 3.71 million, but in 2024 remained at only 72.9% of the 2018 level. Shift-share analysis attributes over 99% of the change in both segments to the national growth effect. Maharashtra's share of national visits stays almost unchanged at 6.42–6.43% (domestic) and 17.60–17.69% (foreign) across all observed years. This constancy is unlikely to be an organic outcome of a period that included a pandemic shock, and it is interpreted as a probable artefact of how state-level estimates are produced. Originality/value: The study joins recovery measurement with a critical appraisal of data quality, a combination rarely attempted for Indian states. It argues that the targets of the Maharashtra Tourism Policy 2024 need an independent, state-level tourism statistical system if progress is to be measured credibly.