DOES INDUSTRIAL EXPANSION STILL DRIVE INCOME GROWTH? AN ARDL ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIALISATION, ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN

This study examines whether industrial expansion and electricity consumption are associated with higher per capita income in Uzbekistan over the period 2000–2024. Using World Development Indicators data, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is modelled as a function of industrial value added growth, electricity consumption per capita, and the labour force participation rate within the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing framework, with an unrestricted intercept and trend (Case V). Unit root tests indicate a combination of I(0) and I(1) series, with no I(2) variables. The bounds F-statistic of 4.885 exceeds the asymptotic upper bound at the 10% significance level, while the evidence strengthens to the 5% level (F = 6.760) in a parsimonious specification that excludes the weakly identified labour variable. The error-correction coefficient of −0.404 implies a half-life of deviations of approximately 1.3 years. A one-percentage-point increase in industrial value added growth is associated with an increase of approximately 1.0% in per capita income in the short run and 4.1% in the long run. The long-run coefficient remains positive and statistically significant (0.031–0.056) across four specifications. Electricity consumption and labour force participation exhibit no independent long-run association with income after controlling for industrial performance, while the sign of the electricity coefficient is unstable. Given the sample of 25 annual observations, the long-run estimates should be interpreted as conditional associations rather than causal effects. The findings suggest that energy efficiency and productivity-led industrial upgrading offer a more reliable pathway to income growth than expanding electricity supply alone.