Paris Agreement progress lowers higher-end global warming prospects by about 1°C

Abstract Since the adoption of the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries have put forward emission reduction pledges which altogether would keep global warming below 2°C. Policy implementation lags these pledges but has nevertheless markedly impacted the outlook. Policy implementation and the shifts in, for example, technology costs they engender have lowered end-of-century global warming prospects since 2015 by about 1°C, yet still imply exceeding 2°C and 1.5°C of global warming by a large margin.

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Publication Details

Journal
Research Square
Published
2026-10-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-11432989/v1
Primary Topic
Climate Change Policy and Economics
Type
preprint
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preprint

Paris Agreement progress lowers higher-end global warming prospects by about 1°C

Michel G.J. den Elzen, Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Takeshi Kuramochi et al.
Research Square
Climate Change Policy and Economics
preprint

Paris Agreement progress lowers higher-end global warming prospects by about 1°C

Michel G.J. den Elzen, Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Takeshi Kuramochi, Niklas Höhne, Robin Lamboll, William Hare, Jan-Luka Scheewel, Ana Missirliu
preprint en

Abstract

Abstract Since the adoption of the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries have put forward emission reduction pledges which altogether would keep global warming below 2°C. Policy implementation lags these pledges but has nevertheless markedly impacted the outlook. Policy implementation and the shifts in, for example, technology costs they engender have lowered end-of-century global warming prospects since 2015 by about 1°C, yet still imply exceeding 2°C and 1.5°C of global warming by a large margin.

Research Square
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL), Climate Analytics (DE), NewClimate Institute (DE), Imperial College London (GB), The University of Tokyo (JP), Wageningen University & Research (NL)
Climate action
Climate Change Policy and Economics
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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Paris Agreement progress lowers higher-end global warming prospects by about 1°C — Michel G.J. den Elzen, Joeri Rogelj, et al. · Research Square (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS