Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Forces of Land Use/Land Cover Change in the “Two Shelters and Three Belts” Ecological Barrier Area in China

Urban expansion has sparked an escalating conflict between land supply and demand, leading to an imbalance in land use structure, ecological degradation, and other ecological security issues. Monitoring land use change within the “Two Shelters and Three Belts” (TSTB) ecological security barrier is crucial to maintaining ecological security in East Asia and even the world. Prior research has predominantly concentrated on local ecological monitoring and analysis, failing to capture the broader scale. This study employs the Climate Change Initiative Land Cover data to uncover the trends and patterns of land use change in the TSTB from 2005 to 2021. The analysis utilizes a land transfer matrix, the positive and negative transformation index of the land cover model, Pearson’s correlation analysis, and zonal statistical methods. The findings indicate that: (1) land transfer occurs in a clear clustered pattern, and the impact of land transfer in the previous period on the subsequent period is roughly between 92% and 99%; (2) the urban and forest areas have expanded spatially, while bare land and farmland have contracted; and (3) land transfer in the TSTB is primarily driven by policy initiatives, particularly the reforestation policy, with less influence from natural factors. In conclusion, human activity, particularly environmental protection policies, positively impacts the overall environment, yet in specific areas, individual human actions can have a negative effect. Thus, relevant government agencies must implement tailored environmental policies based on local conditions to foster a new urbanization trajectory that emphasizes economic intensification alongside green and low-carbon land management.