European Parliament Elections in ‘Places that Don’t Matter’ – Analysing the Regional Variation of Second-order Effects in Germany

Although EU issues have become increasingly politicised, second-order election (SOE) effects persist at both the macro and micro levels. However, the meso level, i.e. the subnational variance of SOE effects, remains underexplored. To address this gap, this article bridges SOE research with studies of political behaviour in ‘places that don’t matter’ by analysing whether the size of SOE effects varies at the subnational level, and whether this variation can be explained by economic, sociodemographic and infrastructural disparities. To test this, we map the variation of SOE effects in the 2014, 2019 and 2024 European Parliament elections at the NUTS-3 level in Germany and conduct regression analyses. Our findings show that different forms of regional deprivation, particularly certain infrastructural deficits and the share of social benefit recipients, shape the magnitude of SOE effects. This suggests that, while citizens are increasingly exposed to politicised debates on EU issues, their electoral responses are mediated by regional context.