QUANTITY IS NOT QUALITY: TRADITIONAL BIOMASS, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY, AND THE GROWTH RETURNS TO RENEWABLE ENERGY IN BRICS+ ECONOMIES, 2002–2022

The renewable energy share is the usual yardstick for the energy transition, but in a group as diverse as BRICS+, it reveals little about how that energy is used. This paper examines whether a higher renewable energy share is associated with higher income once the composition of that share and a country's capacity to absorb climate shocks are taken into account. Using an unbalanced panel of ten BRICS+ members over 2002–2022, estimated with fixed-effects and feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) models within an augmented Cobb–Douglas framework, the renewable energy share has a negative and statistically significant coefficient in both models (−0.108 and −0.238, respectively). This finding reflects the characteristics of the sample rather than renewable energy itself: members with the highest renewable energy shares rely heavily on traditional biomass for cooking and heating, while the wealthiest members derive much of their income from oil and gas. Adaptive capacity (ND-GAIN) is positively associated with income within countries, with a one-point increase corresponding to approximately 1.3% higher GDP per capita. Urbanisation is the strongest structural correlate of income, while R&D intensity distinguishes wealthier members from less affluent ones without significantly affecting income within individual countries over the study period. Thus, the renewable energy share alone is an insufficient indicator of development. For BRICS+ financial instruments, such as the New Development Bank, a more effective priority is replacing traditional household biomass with grid-connected clean energy generation, supported by financing for institutional development and adaptive capacity to enable such investments to contribute to income growth.