Rethinking success and quality in ecological forecasting
Ecological forecasts are increasingly required to inform science, policy and action in the face of rapid environmental and societal change. However, differences in how developers and end-users judge the value of ecological forecasts may limit their utility and uptake in real-world decision-making. Here, we use a participatory approach to propose a novel, holistic framework for the evaluation of ecological forecasts along two intersecting axes: quality and success. Quality is defined by the defensible development and predictive performance of ecological forecasts, while success captures the usefulness of a forecast in achieving its intended aim. We propose twelve shared criteria for evaluating quality and success spanning the forecasting process, set-up, and outputs while capturing forecast development, communication, performance, and operationality. Together, these criteria provide a common basis for the co-development of ecological forecasts, and better connect science with forecast-informed decision-making.
Authors
- Sandro Bertolino (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1063-8281)
- Luke C. Evans (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8649-0589)
- Valentin Journé (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7324-7002)
- Nigel G. Yoccoz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2192-1039)
- James W. Pearce‐Higgins (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1341-5080)
- Cara A. Gallagher (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7094-1752)
- Emily G. Simmonds (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3348-6153)
- Solène Marion (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9774-7386)
- Gerbrand Koren (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2275-0713)
- Joe F. Langley (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-9686-6128)
- Adam Devenish
- Maria Paniw
- Victoria Boult
Institutions
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
- Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (GB)
- Kyushu University (JP)
- Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh (GB)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Aarhus University (DK)
- Joint Nature Conservation Committee (GB)
- Estación Biológica de Doñana (ES)
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
- Conservation Leadership Programme (GB)
- University of Turin (IT)
- University of Reading (GB)
- UiT The Arctic University of Norway (NO)
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
Publication Details
- Published
- 2026-10-28
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.32942/x24m6b
- Primary Topic
- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Type
- preprint
Funders
- British Ecological Society
- European Commission
- University of Edinburgh
- Norges Forskningsråd
- Directorate for Biological Sciences
- HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme
- Agencia Estatal de Investigación
- NextGenerationEU