Climate variability and evolving adaptation strategies among agro-pastoral communities in Taita Taveta County, Kenya

Climate variability poses substantial risks to agro-pastoral livelihoods in Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), where crop and livestock production depend heavily on rainfall, water availability and pasture conditions. This study examined reported climatic trends, household vulnerability and adaptation strategies among agro-pastoral communities in Taita Taveta County, Kenya. The study is framed using the vulnerability approach described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A convergent parallel mixed-methods design was reported, combining a household questionnaire survey with field observations, focus group discussions, key informant interviews and monthly climate records from Voi Meteorological Station for 1988–2018. A sample of 300 participants was randomly selected. Descriptive findings indicate that drought and changing rainfall patterns were widely perceived as important livelihood stressors where 99% of respondents attributed it to changes in rainfall patterns and 93.7% associated it to declining rainfall amounts. Climate-trend analysis indicate that monthly temperature regression slopes were positive in most months, although February had a near-zero negative slope. The reported R² values were low, ranging from 0.000004 to 0.1648, indicating that time alone explained only a limited proportion of monthly temperature variation. The reported agricultural adaptation responses included planting suitable crops, farmer education, irrigation, reducing cultivated area and diversifying into non-farm business. Livestock-related responses included training, reducing herd size and adopting improved breeds. The findings point to the importance of climate information, extension services, water management and livelihood diversification in supporting agro-pastoral resilience. This study concluded that drought and changing rainfall patterns were widely perceived as livelihood concerns. This research recommended strengthening access to locally relevant seasonal forecasts and climate information, and ensuring that advisories are communicated through channels accessible to farmers and livestock keepers.