Poisson Modelling and Scenario Analysis of Home and Away Performance: A Case Study of Solution FC, 2024/25

How much of a club’s home advantage is real, and how sure can we be of it? This paper examines Solution FC’s 2024/25 season in Southern Conference B of the Nigerian National League (NNL). The club played 20 league matches and collected 29 points, 22 of them at home. Goals scored and conceded were treated as independent Poisson counts with separate home and away rates; a negative binomial variant checked whether away scoring was overdispersed, and Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo simulation carried the uncertainty through to every reported quantity. Expected points were 2.17 per home match and 0.73 per away match. The gap of 1.40 points has a 95% credible interval of 0.51 to 2.08 and shrinks to 0.74 when the rates are pulled towards the club’s overall averages. Leave-one-out validation favoured venue-specific rates over pooled rates, but not decisively. Simulated seasons averaged about 29 points, with a wide 95% interval of 17 to 42. A scenario analysis of attacking intensity, built on an assumed trade-off between attack and defensive exposure, showed that the preferred direction depends on how steep that trade-off is; the gains were small and frequently uncertain. The study covers one club and one season and is illustrative, yet it offers a reproducible template for analysing small-sample club data.