Delayed-Bottleneck Prediction: Predicting Future Performance Bottlenecks to Enable Proactive Computational Decision-Making

Computational systems execute sequences of operations whose effects on performance may extend beyond the immediate execution step. An operation that appears inexpensive or beneficial when evaluated locally may increase queue lengths, concentrate demand on shared resources, create dependencies, consume critical capacity, or produce an unfavorable system state that becomes a performance bottleneck several steps later. Conventional scheduling and resource-management approaches commonly rely on current system measurements, predefined policies, reactive threshold detection, or predictions of aggregate workload. Although these approaches can mitigate existing or anticipated congestion, predicting the delayed consequences of individual candidate operations remains an important problem in proactive computational decision-making. This paper proposes Delayed-Bottleneck Prediction (DBP), a conceptual framework for identifying candidate operations that may create future performance bottlenecks before their adverse effects become observable. DBP represents the computational system as a sequential state-transition process and evaluates candidate actions according to their predicted effects on future queue lengths, resource utilization, workload distribution, dependency structure, execution latency, and recovery requirements. A delayed-bottleneck evaluator estimates the probability, severity, and expected onset time of future bottlenecks under alternative actions. An uncertainty-aware decision mechanism then selects operations that balance immediate utility, predicted downstream performance, computational cost, and operational risk. The framework supports learned prediction, simulation-based lookahead, probabilistic forecasting, and receding-horizon decision-making. A mathematical formulation, learning objectives, inference algorithm, and experimental protocol are presented. No experimental results are claimed. The proposed framework constitutes a testable research hypothesis whose effectiveness and novelty must be established through systematic comparison with reactive scheduling, workload forecasting, predictive autoscaling, queue-aware control, and model-based planning methods.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23730605
Primary Topic
Cloud Computing and Resource Management
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
preprint

Delayed-Bottleneck Prediction: Predicting Future Performance Bottlenecks to Enable Proactive Computational Decision-Making

Jincheng Zhang
6 links
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cloud Computing and Resource Management
preprint

Delayed-Bottleneck Prediction: Predicting Future Performance Bottlenecks to Enable Proactive Computational Decision-Making

Jincheng Zhang
preprint en

Abstract

Computational systems execute sequences of operations whose effects on performance may extend beyond the immediate execution step. An operation that appears inexpensive or beneficial when evaluated locally may increase queue lengths, concentrate demand on shared resources, create dependencies, consume critical capacity, or produce an unfavorable system state that becomes a performance bottleneck several steps later. Conventional scheduling and resource-management approaches commonly rely on current system measurements, predefined policies, reactive threshold detection, or predictions of aggregate workload. Although these approaches can mitigate existing or anticipated congestion, predicting the delayed consequences of individual candidate operations remains an important problem in proactive computational decision-making. This paper proposes Delayed-Bottleneck Prediction (DBP), a conceptual framework for identifying candidate operations that may create future performance bottlenecks before their adverse effects become observable. DBP represents the computational system as a sequential state-transition process and evaluates candidate actions according to their predicted effects on future queue lengths, resource utilization, workload distribution, dependency structure, execution latency, and recovery requirements. A delayed-bottleneck evaluator estimates the probability, severity, and expected onset time of future bottlenecks under alternative actions. An uncertainty-aware decision mechanism then selects operations that balance immediate utility, predicted downstream performance, computational cost, and operational risk. The framework supports learned prediction, simulation-based lookahead, probabilistic forecasting, and receding-horizon decision-making. A mathematical formulation, learning objectives, inference algorithm, and experimental protocol are presented. No experimental results are claimed. The proposed framework constitutes a testable research hypothesis whose effectiveness and novelty must be established through systematic comparison with reactive scheduling, workload forecasting, predictive autoscaling, queue-aware control, and model-based planning methods.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cloud Computing and Resource Management
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

Laika access coming soon
Delayed-Bottleneck Prediction: Predicting Future Performance Bottlenecks to Enable Proactive Computational Decision-Making — Jincheng Zhang · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS