Geoclimatic changes, industry structure and external energy dependence as factors of economic dynamics

Subject. The impact of geoclimatic shifts – temperature anomalies and extreme hydrometeorological events – on the economic development of national economies. Objectives. Construction and econometric verification of a panel model that makes it possible to assess the direction and impact of geoclimatic factors on the logarithm of per capita GDP for a sample of 54 countries for 2000–2024. Methods. The study is based on a synthesis of theoretical analysis of the climate-economic literature and an empirical assessment using panel data. Results. An increase in the average annual temperature by 1°C relative to the climatic norm of 1961–1990 reduces per capita GDP by an average of 1.8%, and each additional extreme event (drought, flood, storm) – by 2.6%. The share of agriculture in GDP and energy dependence significantly increase climate vulnerability, while increased grain yields and trade openness act as compensating mechanisms. The model explains 80.7% of the intra-country variation in per capita GDP. Conclusions. Taking into account the combined effects of temperature anomalies, extreme events, and structural characteristics of the economy allows for more accurate estimates of climate damage compared to traditional approaches that consider these factors in isolation. The high share of agriculture and energy dependence create a "structural trap" that increases vulnerability, while technological modernization of the agricultural sector and diversification of foreign trade can partially compensate for losses. The results obtained substantiate the need to integrate climate risks into macroeconomic forecasting and budget planning.