Dynamic Rupture and Ground-Motion Simulations of Potential Earthquakes on the Jinqianghe–Maomaoshan Fault in China Constrained by Geodetic Interseismic Locking

ABSTRACT Physics-based dynamic rupture and ground-motion simulations provide critical constraints for seismic hazard and risk assessment. However, their reliability is limited by the poorly constrained initial stress conditions on faults. To address this issue, we constrain the initial stress distribution in our simulations using geodetic estimates of interseismic locking distribution and slip deficit rate (from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System). We apply this geodetically constrained stress framework to the Jinqianghe–Maomaoshan (JQH–MMS) fault system located within the Tianzhu seismic gap. Scenario dynamic rupture simulations indicate that the fault can generate an earthquake, which would produce peak ground motions exceeding intensity XI on the Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale, highlighting the high seismic risk in the region. To evaluate the impact of our approach, we compared simulated dynamic rupture processes and kinematic ground motions from models with and without geodetically constrained initial stress. The results demonstrate that the locking-derived stress model significantly affects rupture propagation and extent. It also provides a physically grounded framework for seismic risk assessment and mitigation.