Learning by Sanctioning and Learning by Retaliation: Explaining The Evolution of the European Union’s Sanctions Regime Against Russia (2022–2026)

This article examines the twenty-one sanctions packages adopted by the European Union against Russia between February 2022 and July 2026 as a dynamic process of reciprocal learning rather than a sequence of isolated policy decisions. It argues that the EU’s learning by sanctioning and Russia’s learning by retaliation evolved through a mutually reinforcing causal cycle, with each side continuously adapting to the other’s actions. Integrating these two perspectives, the study develops a reciprocal-cycle framework that explains how sanctions and countermeasures co-evolved over time. The findings identify five evolutionary phases—Shock, War Economy, Technology Denial, Anti-Circumvention, and Strategic Attrition—and show that while sanctions failed to alter Russia’s short-term strategic objectives, they gradually weakened its economic, technological, and logistical capacities through cumulative adaptation and capacity erosion.