Balancing internal and external: decoupling carbon emissions from economic growth in China through the lens of economic circulation structure

Globalization is being reconfigured, decarbonization at the national level requires a deeper understanding of the domestic and international circulations. This study proposes a new decoupling analysis framework for China, examines the decoupling dynamics and driving effects of different economic circulations during 1995–2022. The results show that:(1) China’s economic pattern is characterized by a predominantly domestic circulation, and the evolution of domestic circulation dependence shows a “U-shaped” curve. (2) The changes in the decoupling indices for China overall and for different economic circulations all show an “N-shaped” curve, reflecting significant reversals between different stages. (3) Domestic circulation and international circulation exerted a competitive driving effect on China’s overall economic growth in the early stage, while both tended toward “Expansive coupling” in the later stage. (4) The driving effects from international circulations play a dominant role in the shift of China’s overall decoupling index between 2008 and 2013 compared with that between 2001 and 2008. (5) The own decoupling effect of the economic circulation shows a positive driving effect on China’s overall decoupling index. The growth decoupling effect of the domestic and international circulations due to the slowdown in economic growth gradually inhibits the rise of China’s overall decoupling index. It is recommended that the Chinese government focus on the decoupling status of different economic circulations and the complex impacts of economic structure transformation on decoupling.