Land use transitions drive ecosystem service supply–demand balance: spatiotemporal assessment and risk zoning in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Hubei section)

Growing human interference with natural ecosystems has positioned land use transition as a dominant force shaping the supply–demand equilibrium of ecosystem services (ESs). Focusing on the ecologically vulnerable Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Hubei section), this study examined how land use changes from 2000 to 2020 influenced water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), food production (FP), and soil retention (SR). By integrating land use datasets, the InVEST model, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation formula, and multiple regression approaches, we found that (1) land use dynamics were mainly driven by mutual transitions between cropland and forest, along with the expansion of impervious surfaces; (2) ES supply–demand ratios (ESDR) displayed pronounced spatiotemporal variations, with SR remaining in deficit while CS, FP, and WY improved; (3) redundancy analysis verified land use as the leading driver, accounting for over 55% of variance; (4) critical land conversion pathways exerted distinct directional influences on ESDR; and (5) spatial clustering analysis revealed that ESDR changes exhibited strong spatial autocorrelation. High–high clusters of CS and FP changes were primarily concentrated around residential cores, covering 10.68% and 8.22% of the study area, respectively; high–high clusters of WY changes dominated the eastern section, covering 23.72% of the area; and low–low clusters of SR changes dominated the southeastern section, covering 15.85% of the area. Based on spatial clustering of ESDR changes, the region was classified into ecological stability, high-risk, composite risk, and single-risk zones to support customized land management for national spatial optimization.