Can Population Decline Solve the Climate Change Problem? A Mind-Sized Analysis

In this paper, I focus on the question of how a “mind-sized” system dynamics model can help people and decision makers understand the role of human population growth or decline in terms of anthropogenic climate change. Within this simplified model, a reduction in fertility alters the trajectory of the accumulated pollution stock only if it starts early, while the resource base is still abundant; when it starts after resources are largely depleted, it has little or no effect on pollution. These results illustrate the importance of feedback structure and intervention timing; they are not quantitative estimates of the effects of present-day fertility policies. They suggest that mitigating global warming cannot be achieved by simple, solve-all solutions, such as birth control, but requires a structured approach to reduce emissions and the human impact on the ecosystem.