Spatial heterogeneity of air temperature and precipitation trends: a multi-scale physiographic perspective from central Mozambique (1994–2023)

Abstract Central Mozambique encompasses coastal, inland, and high-elevation environments, yet long-term climate trend assessments based on meteorological station data remain limited. Spatial and temporal trends in mean air temperature and total precipitation were analyzed across ten locations over the period 1994–2023. Missing values were reconstructed using monthly scaling with NASA POWER data. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates were applied at the annual, three-month seasonal, and monthly scales, complemented by sensitivity analyses and Spearman correlations with altitude and distance from the coast. Air temperature exhibited a predominantly warming yet asynchronous pattern: Nine locations showed positive annual slopes, six of which were statistically significant (+0.015 to +0.027 °C year⁻¹), and no significant negative temperature trends were identified at any temporal scale. However, warming rates and their seasonal distributions varied across locations, with no significant association between altitude and temperature trends. Precipitation trends exhibited lower spatial coherence and greater sensitivity to temporal aggregation, with few statistically significant results. The reductions identified during July–September lost statistical significance when the analysis was extended to the entire dry season, providing no evidence of a uniform regional direction of change in precipitation totals. The physiographic units defined in this study provided a useful framework for spatial description but did not represent climatically homogeneous domains. The results indicate that climate monitoring and adaptation planning in central Mozambique should account for temporal scale and variability among locations.