Beyond the Energy Vector: Siting Green Methanol and Ammonia Through Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation—The Spanish Case

Renewable hydrogen derivatives—green methanol and green ammonia—are central to European industrial decarbonization, energy sovereignty and low-carbon transport, shipping in particular, yet decisions on where to site their production are driven by techno-economic criteria alone, sidelining social and territorial impacts. We ask where in Spain these derivatives should be produced when social need is placed at the centre of the decision. Using Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation, operationalized through the European Commission’s SOCRATES tool, we rank the 50 Spanish provinces across four dimensions—technical, economic, social and human capital—from 17–19 public criteria aggregated with a non-compensatory Kemeny rule, and compare two scenarios (methanol and ammonia) tested by local and global weight-sensitivity analyses. Giving the social dimension an explicit, high weight shifts the geography obtained under the adopted weighting toward the south and interior. A weight-robust core—Murcia, Zaragoza, Asturias and an Andalusian arc—ranks highly for both derivatives, whereas the scenario leaders (Huelva for methanol, Sevilla for ammonia) are weight-dependent; within the present analytical framework, capturable CO2 is the factor that differentiates the two geographies. The ranking should be read as just-transition priority under the adopted weighting—distinct from engineering feasibility and from realized welfare—rather than as an objectively optimal siting. Embedding social need as an explicit, quantified criterion yields a substantially different industrial geography, one more explicitly aligned with the distributive objectives of a just transition, and provides a transparent, replicable tool for transition planning.