Paving over the source: Land use change and the everyday struggle for water in Mbale town, Kenya (2014-2025)

Secondary cities are where Africa’s urban future is being decided, yet they remain academically invisible. While Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu are extensively studied, towns like Mbale-Vihiga County’s administrative capital absorb over 60% of Kenya’s urban growth with no commensurate infrastructure. This study seeks to find out what happens when a town urbanizes over its own catchment. The study is anchored on the Malthusian theory which posits that population growth exerts pressure on finite resources leading to resource degradation The study quantified land use land cover (LULC) dynamics in Mbale Town between January 2014 and 2025 using Landsat 8 OLI imagery and Sentinel-2 MSI respectively. Maximum Likelihood Classification in QGIS 3.34 SCP was used to map seven LULC classes for Mbale Town. Accuracy assessment based on 105 and 136 ground control points yielded overall accuracies of 77% (2014) and 85% (2025). The transformation is stark. Lan use analysis showed that, built-up area surged from 131 to 192 HA, shrubland from 107 to 192 HA, open ground from 64 to 88 HA. On the other hand, forested areas declined from 501-488HA, grassland from 366 to 264 HA, mixed farming from 661 to 515 HA and wetlands collapsed from 33 to 24. This pattern reflects two simultaneous processes: the sub-division of peri-urban farmland and direct encroachment on riparian zones in Mbale Town choking recharge and reducing water availability. The study findings expose that Mbale is not just growing; it is unmaking its water future. This reveals a governance deficit where riparian protection policies exist on paper but fail on the ground. Without urgent enforcement of catchment protection, secondary towns will pave over the very sources they depend on.