Trajetórias de especialização produtiva: uma análise crítica a partir das teorias do desenvolvimento

This article analyzes the trajectory of concentration and reconfiguration of agricultural production in Salvador das Missões, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, between 2002 and 2024, from different conceptions of development. This theoretical-empirical, analytical, and interpretive study combines a critical literature review with the analysis of secondary data from the Municipal Agricultural Production survey (PAM/SIDRA/IBGE). The relative shares of crops in the planted area or area intended for harvest were examined, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) was calculated as a complementary measure of concentration. The results show that soybeans, corn, and wheat remained predominant throughout the period, jointly accounting for 95.50% of the area considered in 2002 and 94.17% in 2024. The HHI decreased from 0.389 in 2002 to 0.340 in 2010, reached 0.453 in 2016, and declined to 0.387 in 2024. The trajectory reveals internal reconfigurations within a persistently specialized structure, with periods of greater concentration followed by relative deconcentration, without structural diversification. The interpretation based on Rostow, Furtado, and Sen indicates that productive modernization, concentration, diversification, and development are not equivalent categories. It is concluded that changes in productive composition or in the HHI should not, in isolation, be regarded as evidence of structural transformation or development. Keywords: productive specialization; rural development; productive concentration; family farming; Herfindahl-Hirschman index.