Credit expansion and countercyclical bank equity issuance: evidence from China

Purpose This study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic credit expansion and external equity financing within China's heterogeneous banking system. Specifically, it seeks to document the countercyclical pattern where credit booms systematically crowd out equity replenishment. Furthermore, the research aims to deconstruct the underlying transmission mechanisms, including liability-side liquidity constraints, mechanical risk accumulation and profitability dilution. Crucially, it explores how institutional backstops and frictions – such as state ownership, deposit insurance and cross-border market discipline – modulate this behavior. Ultimately, this research seeks to inform targeted macroprudential policy design in emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach This study employs a dual analytical approach. First, we construct a dynamic two-sector banking model to theoretically ground the relationship between credit cycles and equity issuance. Second, we utilize an annual panel of China's A-share listed commercial banks from 2007 to 2023 for empirical validation. We apply two-way fixed-effect regressions to test the baseline countercyclicality. To rigorously address endogeneity, we implemented a Bartik shift-share instrumental variable, seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) and system GMM estimators. Furthermore, we conduct mediation analysis using a bias-corrected bootstrap approach and employ triple-difference (DDD) frameworks to evaluate institutional moderating channels. Findings Furthermore, we document that institutional backstops, notably state ownership and implicit guarantees, actively amplify this countercyclicality by serving as substitutes for market-based recapitalization. Conversely, exposure to rigorous market discipline – evidenced by higher debt-financing costs, elevated credit risk and cross-border dual-listings – dampens these extreme procyclical swings. Notably, the formalization of deposit insurance stabilized funding and effectively neutralized this historical countercyclicality. Our results, robust across Bartik shift-share IV and SUR approaches, demonstrate that this reluctance to replenish capital extends to hybrid tier-1 instruments, providing a unified account of how institutional frictions reshape bank financing hierarchies in emerging markets. Originality/value This study advances the literature through a multidimensional approach. First, we develop a dynamic framework illustrating how credit cycles and debt supply drive banks' financing trade-offs. Second, we empirically document countercyclical bank equity issuance and deconstruct its core transmission channels. Third, we reveal how institutional features – namely state ownership, deposit insurance and cross-border market discipline – modulate this procyclical retrenchment. By integrating theory and empirics, our study provides a foundation for moving beyond one-size-fits-all models and advocating for differentiated macroprudential policies and targeted recapitalization tools in emerging markets.