How Many Months a Year Are Pleasantly Warm? Pleasant Months in the Climate of 1970 to 2000 and 2041 to 2060 from WorldClim

One simple way to describe how agreeable a climate is outdoors is to count the months whose average daily high falls inside a comfortable band. I count such months on the WorldClim 2.1 grid of monthly mean daily maximum temperature for 1970 to 2000 (10 arc-minutes) and on WorldClim's downscaled projections for 2041 to 2060 from three CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5, and I weight the counts by land area and by the population of the 31,778 GeoNames cities of 15,000 people or more. With a band of 18 to 27 °C, land outside Antarctica has 2.5 pleasant months a year on average; 34% of it has none, 12% because it is too cool all year and 22% because it is too hot. The average person in these cities has 3.6 pleasant months, and 21% live where no month qualifies, almost all because it is too hot. In the three-model mean for 2041 to 2060, the city average falls to 2.9; 46% of city dwellers lose at least one month and 14% gain one. Cities with twelve pleasant months fall from 14 to 5 of the 560 with a million people or more, and in 38 big cities of the northern mid-latitudes a single summer season splits into a spring and an autumn. The direction holds for seven alternative bands and for each model separately. The measure ignores humidity, nights and rain, and the grid smooths mountains and coasts; an interactive map lets readers set their own band. Interactive version: https://tristan-hotham.github.io/pleasant-months/. Data and code: https://github.com/Tristan-Hotham/pleasant-months. Blog post: https://blog.tristanhotham.com/2026/10/28/pleasant-months/. Derived from WorldClim 2.1 and WorldClim downscaled CMIP6 data (Fick and Hijmans 2017; CC BY 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The paper, data and figures are released under CC BY 4.0; the code under the MIT licence.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23732575
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
preprint
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preprint

How Many Months a Year Are Pleasantly Warm? Pleasant Months in the Climate of 1970 to 2000 and 2041 to 2060 from WorldClim

Tristan Hotham
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Climate variability and models
preprint

How Many Months a Year Are Pleasantly Warm? Pleasant Months in the Climate of 1970 to 2000 and 2041 to 2060 from WorldClim

Tristan Hotham
preprint en

Abstract

One simple way to describe how agreeable a climate is outdoors is to count the months whose average daily high falls inside a comfortable band. I count such months on the WorldClim 2.1 grid of monthly mean daily maximum temperature for 1970 to 2000 (10 arc-minutes) and on WorldClim's downscaled projections for 2041 to 2060 from three CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5, and I weight the counts by land area and by the population of the 31,778 GeoNames cities of 15,000 people or more. With a band of 18 to 27 °C, land outside Antarctica has 2.5 pleasant months a year on average; 34% of it has none, 12% because it is too cool all year and 22% because it is too hot. The average person in these cities has 3.6 pleasant months, and 21% live where no month qualifies, almost all because it is too hot. In the three-model mean for 2041 to 2060, the city average falls to 2.9; 46% of city dwellers lose at least one month and 14% gain one. Cities with twelve pleasant months fall from 14 to 5 of the 560 with a million people or more, and in 38 big cities of the northern mid-latitudes a single summer season splits into a spring and an autumn. The direction holds for seven alternative bands and for each model separately. The measure ignores humidity, nights and rain, and the grid smooths mountains and coasts; an interactive map lets readers set their own band. Interactive version: https://tristan-hotham.github.io/pleasant-months/. Data and code: https://github.com/Tristan-Hotham/pleasant-months. Blog post: https://blog.tristanhotham.com/2026/10/28/pleasant-months/. Derived from WorldClim 2.1 and WorldClim downscaled CMIP6 data (Fick and Hijmans 2017; CC BY 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The paper, data and figures are released under CC BY 4.0; the code under the MIT licence.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Climate action, Sustainable cities and communities
Climate variability and models
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How Many Months a Year Are Pleasantly Warm? Pleasant Months in the Climate of 1970 to 2000 and 2041 to 2060 from WorldClim — Tristan Hotham · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS