Probabilistic and sensitivity analysis in airfield pavement design

The structural performance of airfield pavements is influenced by variables related to the materials and the thicknesses of the layers, and understanding their effects is essential for safe and optimized projects. This study evaluates the performance of airfield pavements by combining probabilistic and sensitivity analysis. The probabilistic analysis was conducted using Rosenblueth’s point estimate method, quantifying the impact of variability in resilient moduli and layer thicknesses on the structural response. The sensitivity analysis identified the most critical parameters by calculating their relative influence on the vertical deformation at the top of the subgrade and on the cumulative damage factor (CDF). The results indicated that the subgrade resilient modulus has the greatest influence on pavement performance, followed by the thicknesses of the subbase, surface, and base layers. Reducing the variability of all input parameters increased the estimated service life from 13.1 to 19.0 years. This hierarchy highlights the importance of quality control, prioritizing subgrade characterization and uniformity, in addition to inspection during layer construction, offering technical support for the development of rational designs.