Food security in Uzbekistan: Agricultural transformation, import dependence, and price stability

Background: Food security is a core component of economic security because it determines a country’s resilience to external shocks and its ability to feed its population from domestic resources. Objective: This study examines how agricultural output, grain productivity, and the structural position of agriculture in the economy of Uzbekistan changed in 2001–2025, and what these changes imply for food security, import dependence, and stability. Methods: Eight World Development Indicators series were analysed using descriptive statistics, compound annual growth rates, year-on-year changes, a coefficient of variation, and a derived ratio of agriculture’s share of GDP to its share of employment. Results: The food production index rose from 37.25 in 2001 to 123.32 in 2024 (2014–2016 = 100), a 231.1% increase. Cereal production grew from 4.26 to 8.30 million tonnes and cereal yield from 3,042.9 to 5,496.2 kg per hectare. However, growth decelerated sharply after 2016: the food index compound growth rate fell from 7.25% to 1.86% a year and cereal production growth from 4.37% to 0.30%. Agriculture’s share of GDP declined from 29.97% to 16.56%. Conclusion: Domestic food supply capacity has expanded substantially and is now driven mainly by yield rather than area, but growth has slowed and remains exposed to production shocks. The dataset contains no import or price series, so import dependence and price stability could be assessed only indirectly.