Food Security Without Agricultural Autarky: Balancing Import Diversification and Water-Efficient Domestic Production in the UAE

Import-dependent economies face a dilemma: international specialization offers economic benefits but can leave food supplies vulnerable to external disruptions. Based on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) case study, this paper investigates import diversification in combination with selective domestic production, specifically in the context of water scarcity. A comprehensive review of all government, World Bank, U.S. government and academic evidence is mixed with repeatable calculations and an explicit wheat-supply shock scenario. In 2023, the UAE only had 0.71% arable land, while in 2024, the USDA recorded $16.2 billion in agricultural imports for consumers in the UAE. Russia was the largest exporter of wheat to the UAE with about 44.5% of the imports in 2023/24. An illustrative 50 percent disruption to that supplier would result in a shortfall of 22.3% of imports, and a 25% portion disruption would result in a 12.5% comparable shortfall. These can be scenarios, not measured outcomes. The analysis suggests that water-intensive staples are more reliably captured from a balanced mix of sources, reserve management and logistics, while water-limited perishables, or strategically important foods, could be alternatively sourced locally. Resilience is not related to a single country's self-sufficiency ratio, but rather to the composition, reliability and environmental cost of supply.