The Record-Breaking Low-Level Jet Event in Subtropical South America During the Winter of 2026

The South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ) is a major pathway for heat and moisture transport from tropical to subtropical South America, often triggering severe weather. This study characterizes the physical and statistical features of an exceptionally strong SALLJ event that occurred between 17 and 19 July 2026. A 20-year radiosonde dataset from three stations along the jet pathway revealed that the event was unprecedented in persistence, with wind speeds remaining above the local 90th percentile for at least four consecutive soundings taken at 12 h intervals. ERA5 reanalysis further showed that the 850 hPa wind speeds during this SALLJ episode were anomalously high, reaching 3.8 standard deviations above the July 1991–2020 climatological mean and exceeding 4 standard deviations on 17 July. The event developed under the combined influence of an anomalously strong subtropical jet and an upper-level trough extending toward southeastern South America. SALLJ intensification and persistence were favored by two complementary processes: (1) an enhanced pressure gradient between a deepened continental low (associated with upper-level divergence) and the intensified South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone and (2) upper-level jet-exit dynamics and orographically induced ageostrophic circulations that maintained the low-level northerly flow for a longer time. El Niño 2026 background conditions for the SALLJ extreme event due to the anomalous upper-level jet configuration were highlighted.

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Publication Details

Journal
Climate
Published
2026-10-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14110231
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

The Record-Breaking Low-Level Jet Event in Subtropical South America During the Winter of 2026

Michelle Simões Reboita, Luiz Felippe Gozzo, Bruno César Capucin, Ana Maria Pereira Nunes et al.
1 links
Climate
Climate variability and models
article

The Record-Breaking Low-Level Jet Event in Subtropical South America During the Winter of 2026

Michelle Simões Reboita, Luiz Felippe Gozzo, Bruno César Capucin, Ana Maria Pereira Nunes, Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha, Felipe Vemado, Maria de Souza Custódio, Natan Chrysostomo de Oliveira Nogueira, Guilherme Almeida Dos Santos, Christhyan Paixão
article en

Abstract

The South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ) is a major pathway for heat and moisture transport from tropical to subtropical South America, often triggering severe weather. This study characterizes the physical and statistical features of an exceptionally strong SALLJ event that occurred between 17 and 19 July 2026. A 20-year radiosonde dataset from three stations along the jet pathway revealed that the event was unprecedented in persistence, with wind speeds remaining above the local 90th percentile for at least four consecutive soundings taken at 12 h intervals. ERA5 reanalysis further showed that the 850 hPa wind speeds during this SALLJ episode were anomalously high, reaching 3.8 standard deviations above the July 1991–2020 climatological mean and exceeding 4 standard deviations on 17 July. The event developed under the combined influence of an anomalously strong subtropical jet and an upper-level trough extending toward southeastern South America. SALLJ intensification and persistence were favored by two complementary processes: (1) an enhanced pressure gradient between a deepened continental low (associated with upper-level divergence) and the intensified South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone and (2) upper-level jet-exit dynamics and orographically induced ageostrophic circulations that maintained the low-level northerly flow for a longer time. El Niño 2026 background conditions for the SALLJ extreme event due to the anomalous upper-level jet configuration were highlighted.

ClimateVol. 14(11)
Instituto Butantan (BR), Universidade Federal de Itajubá (BR), Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) (BR)
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais
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Openalex Percentile: Top 17%
Climate variability and models
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