Climate Variability and Pastoralist Migration: Evidence of Climate-Driven Shifts in Herder Movement Patterns into Benue State, Nigeria 2015-2024

Climate variability is increasingly recognised as a potential influence on pastoral mobility across West Africa, particularly where changing rainfall patterns and prolonged dry periods affect the availability of pasture and water. This study examines the relationship between climate variability and herder migration patterns into Benue State, Nigeria, between 2015 and 2024, focusing on changes in migration timing, routes, duration, and settlement patterns. The study adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining questionnaire responses from 319 respondents across five Local Government Areas—Guma, Logo, Agatu, Katsina-Ala, and Gwer West—with qualitative data from 28 semi-structured interviews. Quantitative data are analysed using descriptive statistics while qualitative data are examined thematically. Environmental Scarcity Theory and Human Ecology Theory provide the analytical framework for understanding how climatic pressures and human adaptation may shape pastoral mobility. The study investigates whether irregular rainfall, prolonged drought, and flooding are associated with changes in the timing, routes, and duration of herder movements, including prolonged stays and possible shifts towards semi-permanent settlement. It also recognises that these patterns may be mediated by socioeconomic conditions, insecurity, land access, and institutional arrangements. By focusing on five Local Government Areas in Benue State over the 2015–2024 period, the study provides a framework for examining the climate–migration relationship at the subnational level and informing policies on climate adaptation, sustainable grazing management, early-warning systems, and negotiated migration corridors.