Hosting is not capturing: an exposure-capability framework and Hungary's electric-vehicle battery bet

How should a dependent economy respond when a polycrisis turns economic integration from a source of efficiency into a surface of vulnerability? This paper develops the exposure-capability framework, which maps a country's strategic options along two dimensions - the concentration of its external dependence and the depth of its productive capability - and yields four ideal strategies. It applies the framework to Hungary's large-scale bet on electric-vehicle battery manufacturing, asking what the concentrated exposure purchased: movement toward a higher position in the battery value chain, as a catch-up gamble, or the reproduction of the country's existing position under a new product, as dependent entrenchment. Using a firm-level panel of Hungary's largest companies for 2010-2024, it tests four hypotheses and examines the conditions attached to the support that financed the investments. The sector has expanded enormously, but its value capture neither rises beyond the recovery from construction losses nor shifts up the chain: production remains concentrated in the lowest-value stage, matures only to the level of comparably young foreign-owned firms, and does not cover its own costs. The support that financed it required investment volume, revenue and employment retention; capability-relevant criteria entered the decree as considerations rather than conditions, and a capability-contingent instrument within the same scheme went unused. On the evidence to 2024 the bet is a lateral substitution at constant quality, in which battery-cell fabrication replaces automotive assembly at the same dependent position. Hosting the green transition's supply chain, the case shows, is not the same as capturing its value.