Climate Grievances and Armed Group Proliferation in Nigeria's Resource Conflicts.

Abstract: This paper investigates the intersection of climate change, resource scarcity, and the proliferation of non-state armed groups in Nigeria. While existing scholarship has extensively documented the environmental degradation of the Niger Delta and farmer-herder conflicts in the Middle Belt, a critical gap remains: the strategic exploitation of climate-induced grievances by armed groups for recruitment, territorial control, and legitimacy. Employing a qualitative comparative case study approach, this research analyses two distinct conflict zones: the Niger Delta (driven by resource extraction and pollution) and the Northwest/North-Central regions (driven by desertification and resource competition). Frame within the human security paradigm and the concept of Anthropocene Inequality, the paper argues that climate change acts as a threat multiplier, creating conditions of economic desperation that armed groups strategically exploit. The findings reveal that non-state armed groups are not merely opportunistic actors but strategic entrepreneurs who weaponise environmental grievances. By positioning themselves as "protectors" of marginalised communities, they successfully recruit unemployed youth and sustain their operations through the control of scarce resources. The paper concludes by proposing a conflict-sensitive approach to climate adaptation that integrates community-led intelligence, youth engagement, and resource governance reform. Keywords: Climate Security, Human Security, Non-State Armed Groups, Resource Conflicts, Nigeria, Anthropocene Inequality, Environmental Scarcity. Note: This is a preprint of a manuscript prepared for submission to the journal National Security and the Future.