Türkiye’s Pursuit of Strategic Autonomy in the Black Sea During the Russia-Ukraine War

Amid the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape of the Black Sea—shaped primarily by the Russia–Ukraine war and intensifying Russia–West rivalry—Türkiye has pursued a policy aimed at preserving regional stability while maintaining a delicate balance of power. This article examines how Türkiye has pursued strategic autonomy in the Black Sea while maintaining its NATO membership, supporting Ukraine, and preserving relations with Russia. Rather than relying predominantly on hard power, Türkiye leverages a combination of diplomatic engagement, mediation initiatives, and pragmatic economic relations to position itself as a pivotal regional actor. Within the constraints of its NATO membership and relations with Russia, Ankara seeks to preserve room for independent decision-making on specific security, economic, and diplomatic issues.Using a qualitative case study based on official statements, institutional documents, and secondary scholarship, the article examines Türkiye’s implementation of the Montreux Convention, support for Ukraine, economic engagement with Russia, and diplomatic initiatives. It argues that these policies reflect an effort to preserve strategic autonomy under competing security and economic pressures, rather than neutrality or a departure from NATO. The case highlights the distinction between maintaining diplomatic access and securing durable influence over conflict outcomes.